How Trump’s Presence Shaped New Jersey’s Election — and Helped Democrats Win
If there is one overriding theme to be gleaned from Tuesday’s election, it has to be this:Donald Trump is doing New Jersey Republicans no good at all.
It’s hard to reach any other conclusion.
Let’s look at the data.
The magnitude of Mikie Sherrill’s win probably surprised even her. No poll had Jack Ciattarelli ahead, but none had Sherrill winning by double-digits either. And she won by 13 points.
But there was more.
Democrats picked up four seats in the state Assembly and they are leading in a fifth.This could mean that come January, Democrats will hold 57 of 80 seats in the lower House.
Hard to believe now, but Ciattarelli said more than once in the campaign that he expected Republicans to pick up Assembly seats.
Now, let’s look at the campaigns.
Ciattarelli, by all accounts, talked more about New Jersey issues than Sherrill.
The Republican candidate set forth what he wanted to do. In no particular order, he proposed:
Ending New Jersey’s status as a “sanctuary state.”
Appointing new members to the state Board of Education and scaling back sex education in regard to gay and transgender issues.
Challenging the state’s Mount Laurel or affordable housing mandates in court.
Opposing windmill construction off the Jersey Shore.
And yes, bringing back plastic bags.
Sherrill in contrast talked a lot in generalities, stressing a need to make the state more “affordable” and to expand opportunity for all. Legitimate goals, but no specifics.
But she did talk – and talk – about Trump.
She said tariffs are leading to high prices and that ICE raids, or even the threat of ice raids, are creating fear in immigrant communities.
When Barack Obama campaigned for Sherrill a few days before the election, he blasted Trump for, among other things, paving over the Rose Garden. He did not talk about property taxes in New Jersey.
Some observers thought that all this would tip in Ciattarelli’s favor. All politics is local, right?
And voters’ feelings on Trump notwithstanding, real New Jersey issues count more.
Nope. That was not the case.
Sherrill’s campaign of condemning Trump paid off – big time.
What had to help the Democrat was Trump’s habit of making news – all types of news – all the time.
In the weeks leading up to the Nov. 4 election, the president said he was terminating the Gateway Tunnel project. Building a new rail tunnel under the Hudson is a big issue in north Jersey,
SNAP, or food stamp benefits, expired on Nov. 1 as result of the federal government shutdown. Trump declined to use available money to keep the benefits going.
Ciattarelli attributed some of the president’s policies to “hardball politics.” Perhaps, but the greater problem was that New Jersey was being hurt and Ciattarelli refused to criticize Trump.
Additionally, the president’s move to demolish part of the east wing of the White House to make way for a ballroom has gotten bipartisan opposition.
One really does not know the mindset of voters. However, it’s not a stretch to suggest a majority saw supporting Sherrill as a way to express unhappiness with the president.
What happens next year?
Democrats had a joyous party Tuesday night at the East Brunswick Hilton and they’re probably still on a high. Who can blame them?
Republicans across the state can take solace in the vagaries of politics.
The president hurt them this year, but there’s no guarantee the same will happen when the 2026 midterm election rolls around.
Every election is different.
After all, last year people were talking about how well Trump did in New Jersey.
By William Swanson, Special to The Central Observer