What political polls predict for the NJ Governor’s race
Everyone wants to know the score of the game even if it is just the first quarter.
Political polling is a little like that. Just like a fan reacting to every first down, political junkies eagerly await the latest poll.
Which brings us to the governor’s race between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli.
What do the polls say?
The first poll in this race was by Rutgers-Eagleton shortly after the June primary. It showed Sherrill with about a 20-point lead.
Here’s the bottom line.
It was so out-of-line, no one really believed it.
Still, polls like that make an impact. Republicans on Team Jack said they had to spend time telling donors not to take the poll seriously.
We move on.
Over the summer, there were six polls, including ones done by Fairleigh Dickinson University, Quinnipiac University, Patrick Murray, formerly of Monmouth University, and another one by Rutgers-Eagleton.
They were pretty consistent. They all had Sherrill leading by 6 to 10 points. So, an average of 8.
That was where many assumed the race was. Sherrill was leading, but Ciattarelli definitely was in the game.
Then came an Emerson poll last week that had the race tied at 43 percentage points each.
That one sent shock waves through the state’s political establishment.
The New York Post, which leans right, called the poll “stunning.”
And in some ways it was. Republicans have won only two statewide elections in New Jersey since 1997. That was Chris Christie in 2009 and 2013.
The Ciattarelli camp said those findings confirmed their internal polling while Team Mikie was silent.
This week, however, things have changed again – somewhat.
A Fox News poll gave Sherrill an 8-point lead, reinforcing the earlier poll findings.
But a poll by Quantus Insight gave her only a 2 point lead. It explained:
“Sherrill still leads. But her support is flatter than it looks.”
There was also an internal Sherrill poll that gave her a 7 point lead.
So with just about a month ago that is where we stand.
Confused? How can one not be?
This brings up the old political line that seems trite, but is also true.
The only poll that counts is on Election Day.
By William Swanson, Special to The Central Observer